High Impact Rookies
Being able to correctly identify high-impact rookies can lead to major advantages on draft day, whether in a mixed, NL-only or AL-only league. Not a year goes by without a first-year player making a splash.
Last season the Marlins' Chris Coghlan batted .321 with a .390 on-base percentage. He hit nine home runs, tallied 47 RBI and swiped eight bases in 128 games on his way to winning the National League's Rookie of the Year award. The Cardinals' Colby Rasmus smacked 16 home runs, collected 52 RBI and scored 72 runs during his first full major league season. And how about the AL Rookie of the Year, Andrew Bailey, who was 6-3 with 26 saves, a 1.84 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP and a 91/25 K/BB ratio in 83 1/3 innings?
The list goes on and on. From the Tigers' Rick Porcello, to Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus, there was no shortage of talent among Major League Baseball's youth last season. Now it's up to us to dig deep and find the quality youngsters that litter the 2010 draft board. Some are a little more obvious than others...
Questions, comments, something on your mind? Shoot me an e-mail or find me on Twitter. Thanks for reading.
Jason Heyward - OF - Braves
We've talked the kid up more than enough here on Rotoworld and you've undoubtedly heard about the power he has displayed this spring in Braves camp. Heyward, the game's most intriguing position prospect, hit .323/.408/.555 with 17 home runs, 69 runs scored and 18 stolen bases last season in 362 plate appearances between Single-A Myrtle Beach, Double-A Mississippi and Triple-A Gwinnett. He's off to a roaring 10-for-22 start in Grapefruit League play and has his sights set on Atlanta's Opening Day right field gig. If he cracks the Braves' initial 25-man roster it won't be to sit on the bench. The kid's going to play.
Stephen Strasburg - SP - Nationals
Here's another name you're probably more than familiar with. Strasburg, 21, was selected first overall in last year's amateur draft and has been nothing short of impressive for the Nationals so far this spring. The club has not committed to handing him a rotation spot right off the bat, but he will almost certainly make his major league debut before the All-Star break this season and we have every reason to believe he will succeed. The young right-hander owns a power fastball that reaches into the triple-digits and a nasty slider that has enough speed and break to confuse the best major league hitters. Comb the waiver wire for him this summer unless he's available on draft day.
Scott Sizemore - 2B - Tigers
Lost in the shuffle because of concerns surrounding his surgically-repaired ankle, Sizemore is going undrafted in most of the mixed-league mocks we've seen this spring. There's no denying that the 25-year-old infielder has a lot of proving to do, but he has the Tigers' second base gig wrapped up and his minor league stat lines are worth taking a look at. Sizemore, a fifth-round pick back in 2006, hit .308/.389/.500 last season with 17 home runs, 66 RBI and 21 stolen bases in 130 games between Double-A Erie and Triple-A Toledo. He's ready for the big time and may find himself regularly near the top of the Tigers' batting order this year. We have him hitting .271 with 12 homers and 18 stolen bases in our award-winning Rotoworld Draft Guide.
Neftali Feliz - RP - Rangers
Feliz already made his presence felt last season, compiling a 1.74 ERA and 0.68 WHIP over 31 innings out of the Rangers' bullpen, but he is still technically considered a rookie and carries a good amount of fantasy potential. The 21-year-old averaged 95.8 MPH with his fastball in 2009 and has solid off-speed stuff to boot. We're fairly certain that he's going to open the year in the bullpen as a setup man and middle reliever, but that doesn't mean the Rangers will leave him there all season. He's in the club's long-term plans as a starter and his transition to the rotation could begin by mid-summer.
Brian Matusz - SP - Orioles
Another youngster with a fair amount of major league experience, Matusz rolls into the 2010 season with a firm grasp on a spot in Baltimore's starting rotation. He was 5-2 last season with a 4.63 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and a 38/14 K/BB ratio in 44 1/3 innings (eight starts). Spring stats should always be taken with a grain of salt, but he's been collecting strikeouts at will in O's camp this month and we're optimistic about his chances of success in the AL East this season. The 23-year-old is going to get lit up plenty against baseball's best lineups, but he has a good head on his shoulders and happens to own a decent level of job security, which are rare qualities amongst the under-25 crowd.
Alcides Escobar - SS - Brewers
The 23-year-old played only 38 games at the major league level last season and it was enough to convince Brewers management that he is ready to take on full-time duties at the shortstop position. J.J. Hardy was dealt to the Twins this winter for outfielder Carlos Gomez, leaving Escobar with the starting job all to himself. He batted .304/.333/.368 with one home run, 11 RBI and four stolen bases in 125 major league at-bats last season and .298/.353/.409 at Triple-A Nashville before his late-season call-up. Escobar isn't a big power guy, and might never be, but he's slick on the basepaths and Milwaukee will stick with him even if he struggles early on.
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David Freese - 3B - Cardinals
Cardinals manager Tony La Russa has always been hesitant with young players, especially rookies, and Freese will be treated no differently. He's a lock to open the season as the starting third baseman in St. Louis, but Felipe Lopez was brought in this winter as insurance in case the 26-year-old gets off to a slow start. That limits Freese's value, but he should not be written off completely. He hit .300/.369/.525 with 10 homers and 37 RBI in just 56 games at Triple-A Memphis last year and was 10-for-31 (.323) during a short stay in the majors. If La Russa and Co. let him out of his cage, Freese will warrant ownership in all NL-only leagues and even some mixed formats. The Rotoworld Draft Guide projects him to hit just under .270 this season with 17 home runs and 61 RBI.
Aroldis Chapman - SP - Reds
Chapman tends to scare some fantasy owners because he has zero professional experience and few people have actually seen him pitch. Some of that will change Wednesday, when he makes his first spring start against the Brewers. The Cuban left-hander has already registered two impressive relief outings, but it will be interesting to see what kind of tricks he has up his sleeve as Wednesday's opening act. I've said it before and I'm going to say it again: The Reds are paying Chapman like a major leaguer and will not hesitate to promote him if he shows any kind of dominance in the minor league ranks. We've heard all about his triple-digit fastball and intimidating mound presence; now it's time for him to go out there and pitch. Inspiring, no?
Wade Davis - SP - Rays
We're not big on over-analyzing spring stats for obvious reasons, but they're a fine reference point when dealing with uncertain players. Davis, a 24-year-old right-hander, tossed four scoreless innings in the Rays' 7-0 victory over the Red Sox on Tuesday. He racked up five strikeouts against one walk and surrendered only three hits. Davis is immesnly talented and posted a 2.72 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in nine starts last season for Triple-A Durham. He has shown a great ability to tally strikeouts in bunches during his six years of minor league ball and that should carry over eventually to his major league performance. The Rotoworld Draft Guide likes him to throw 183 2/3 innings this season with a 4.17 ERA and 180 strikeouts.
Madison Bumgarner - SP - Giants
The 20-year-old left-hander spent most of the 2009 season at Single-A Connecticut and Double-A San Jose, where he rattled off a combined 12-2 record, 1.85 ERA and 92 strikeouts in 131 1/3 innings. He was given a September call-up to the big leagues and continued the run of success, posting a 1.80 ERA in 10 frames for the Giants. The club clearly fell in love, and told Bumgarner as he entered spring training this year that he will have an opportunity to claim the final spot in the major league rotation. Bumgarner has been shaky in Cactus League play thus far, but his main competition is Todd Wellemeyer, who rattled off an ugly 5.89 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in 28 appearances (21 starts) last season for the Cardinals. Needless to say, we expect Bumgarner to open the year in San Francisco and to enjoy a decent level of success.
Austin Jackson - OF - Tigers
Jackson made Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre his home last season, registering over 550 plate appearances and batting .300/.354/.405 with four homers, 65 RBI and 24 stolen bases. He has the unfortunate responsibility of replacing fan favorite Curtis Granderson in the Tigers' outfield this season, but that doesn't mean he is destined for failure. Jackson has great range in center and should be a demon on the basepaths this year in the American League Central. Batting leadoff in a lineup that boasts sluggers like Johnny Damon, Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez, Jackson could top 100 runs if only a few things go right.
Ian Desmond - SS - Nationals
Washington manager Jim Riggleman made it clear in early March that Desmond will either start at shortstop in the big leagues or start at short in Triple-A. Either way, the Nats want him to get as much playing time as possible. And that's where the story currently stands. Cristian Guzman is doing his best to fend the youngster off for the Nationals' starting shortstop gig, but Desmond has hit 12-for-30 this spring with a home run, 11 RBI and three stolen bases. He's clearly the better option, and Riggleman certainly knows that, but upper-management has been cautious about pushing the 24-year-old too quickly through the system. Whatever happens as March turns to April, we're sure to see Desmond in a big league uniform this season. He'll probably be a starter in the District of Columbia by early July.
Other notable rookies: Logan Morrison (1B - Marlins), Buster Posey (C - Giants), Jon Niese (SP - Mets), Daniel Hudson (SP - White Sox), Justin Smoak (1B - Rangers), Mike Stanton (OF - Marlins), Jason Castro (C - Astros).
Being able to correctly identify high-impact rookies can lead to major advantages on draft day, whether in a mixed, NL-only or AL-only league. Not a year goes by without a first-year player making a splash.
Last season the Marlins' Chris Coghlan batted .321 with a .390 on-base percentage. He hit nine home runs, tallied 47 RBI and swiped eight bases in 128 games on his way to winning the National League's Rookie of the Year award. The Cardinals' Colby Rasmus smacked 16 home runs, collected 52 RBI and scored 72 runs during his first full major league season. And how about the AL Rookie of the Year, Andrew Bailey, who was 6-3 with 26 saves, a 1.84 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP and a 91/25 K/BB ratio in 83 1/3 innings?
The list goes on and on. From the Tigers' Rick Porcello, to Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus, there was no shortage of talent among Major League Baseball's youth last season. Now it's up to us to dig deep and find the quality youngsters that litter the 2010 draft board. Some are a little more obvious than others...
Questions, comments, something on your mind? Shoot me an e-mail or find me on Twitter. Thanks for reading.
Jason Heyward - OF - Braves
We've talked the kid up more than enough here on Rotoworld and you've undoubtedly heard about the power he has displayed this spring in Braves camp. Heyward, the game's most intriguing position prospect, hit .323/.408/.555 with 17 home runs, 69 runs scored and 18 stolen bases last season in 362 plate appearances between Single-A Myrtle Beach, Double-A Mississippi and Triple-A Gwinnett. He's off to a roaring 10-for-22 start in Grapefruit League play and has his sights set on Atlanta's Opening Day right field gig. If he cracks the Braves' initial 25-man roster it won't be to sit on the bench. The kid's going to play.
Stephen Strasburg - SP - Nationals
Here's another name you're probably more than familiar with. Strasburg, 21, was selected first overall in last year's amateur draft and has been nothing short of impressive for the Nationals so far this spring. The club has not committed to handing him a rotation spot right off the bat, but he will almost certainly make his major league debut before the All-Star break this season and we have every reason to believe he will succeed. The young right-hander owns a power fastball that reaches into the triple-digits and a nasty slider that has enough speed and break to confuse the best major league hitters. Comb the waiver wire for him this summer unless he's available on draft day.
Scott Sizemore - 2B - Tigers
Lost in the shuffle because of concerns surrounding his surgically-repaired ankle, Sizemore is going undrafted in most of the mixed-league mocks we've seen this spring. There's no denying that the 25-year-old infielder has a lot of proving to do, but he has the Tigers' second base gig wrapped up and his minor league stat lines are worth taking a look at. Sizemore, a fifth-round pick back in 2006, hit .308/.389/.500 last season with 17 home runs, 66 RBI and 21 stolen bases in 130 games between Double-A Erie and Triple-A Toledo. He's ready for the big time and may find himself regularly near the top of the Tigers' batting order this year. We have him hitting .271 with 12 homers and 18 stolen bases in our award-winning Rotoworld Draft Guide.
Neftali Feliz - RP - Rangers
Feliz already made his presence felt last season, compiling a 1.74 ERA and 0.68 WHIP over 31 innings out of the Rangers' bullpen, but he is still technically considered a rookie and carries a good amount of fantasy potential. The 21-year-old averaged 95.8 MPH with his fastball in 2009 and has solid off-speed stuff to boot. We're fairly certain that he's going to open the year in the bullpen as a setup man and middle reliever, but that doesn't mean the Rangers will leave him there all season. He's in the club's long-term plans as a starter and his transition to the rotation could begin by mid-summer.
Brian Matusz - SP - Orioles
Another youngster with a fair amount of major league experience, Matusz rolls into the 2010 season with a firm grasp on a spot in Baltimore's starting rotation. He was 5-2 last season with a 4.63 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and a 38/14 K/BB ratio in 44 1/3 innings (eight starts). Spring stats should always be taken with a grain of salt, but he's been collecting strikeouts at will in O's camp this month and we're optimistic about his chances of success in the AL East this season. The 23-year-old is going to get lit up plenty against baseball's best lineups, but he has a good head on his shoulders and happens to own a decent level of job security, which are rare qualities amongst the under-25 crowd.
Alcides Escobar - SS - Brewers
The 23-year-old played only 38 games at the major league level last season and it was enough to convince Brewers management that he is ready to take on full-time duties at the shortstop position. J.J. Hardy was dealt to the Twins this winter for outfielder Carlos Gomez, leaving Escobar with the starting job all to himself. He batted .304/.333/.368 with one home run, 11 RBI and four stolen bases in 125 major league at-bats last season and .298/.353/.409 at Triple-A Nashville before his late-season call-up. Escobar isn't a big power guy, and might never be, but he's slick on the basepaths and Milwaukee will stick with him even if he struggles early on.
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David Freese - 3B - Cardinals
Cardinals manager Tony La Russa has always been hesitant with young players, especially rookies, and Freese will be treated no differently. He's a lock to open the season as the starting third baseman in St. Louis, but Felipe Lopez was brought in this winter as insurance in case the 26-year-old gets off to a slow start. That limits Freese's value, but he should not be written off completely. He hit .300/.369/.525 with 10 homers and 37 RBI in just 56 games at Triple-A Memphis last year and was 10-for-31 (.323) during a short stay in the majors. If La Russa and Co. let him out of his cage, Freese will warrant ownership in all NL-only leagues and even some mixed formats. The Rotoworld Draft Guide projects him to hit just under .270 this season with 17 home runs and 61 RBI.
Aroldis Chapman - SP - Reds
Chapman tends to scare some fantasy owners because he has zero professional experience and few people have actually seen him pitch. Some of that will change Wednesday, when he makes his first spring start against the Brewers. The Cuban left-hander has already registered two impressive relief outings, but it will be interesting to see what kind of tricks he has up his sleeve as Wednesday's opening act. I've said it before and I'm going to say it again: The Reds are paying Chapman like a major leaguer and will not hesitate to promote him if he shows any kind of dominance in the minor league ranks. We've heard all about his triple-digit fastball and intimidating mound presence; now it's time for him to go out there and pitch. Inspiring, no?
Wade Davis - SP - Rays
We're not big on over-analyzing spring stats for obvious reasons, but they're a fine reference point when dealing with uncertain players. Davis, a 24-year-old right-hander, tossed four scoreless innings in the Rays' 7-0 victory over the Red Sox on Tuesday. He racked up five strikeouts against one walk and surrendered only three hits. Davis is immesnly talented and posted a 2.72 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in nine starts last season for Triple-A Durham. He has shown a great ability to tally strikeouts in bunches during his six years of minor league ball and that should carry over eventually to his major league performance. The Rotoworld Draft Guide likes him to throw 183 2/3 innings this season with a 4.17 ERA and 180 strikeouts.
Madison Bumgarner - SP - Giants
The 20-year-old left-hander spent most of the 2009 season at Single-A Connecticut and Double-A San Jose, where he rattled off a combined 12-2 record, 1.85 ERA and 92 strikeouts in 131 1/3 innings. He was given a September call-up to the big leagues and continued the run of success, posting a 1.80 ERA in 10 frames for the Giants. The club clearly fell in love, and told Bumgarner as he entered spring training this year that he will have an opportunity to claim the final spot in the major league rotation. Bumgarner has been shaky in Cactus League play thus far, but his main competition is Todd Wellemeyer, who rattled off an ugly 5.89 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in 28 appearances (21 starts) last season for the Cardinals. Needless to say, we expect Bumgarner to open the year in San Francisco and to enjoy a decent level of success.
Austin Jackson - OF - Tigers
Jackson made Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre his home last season, registering over 550 plate appearances and batting .300/.354/.405 with four homers, 65 RBI and 24 stolen bases. He has the unfortunate responsibility of replacing fan favorite Curtis Granderson in the Tigers' outfield this season, but that doesn't mean he is destined for failure. Jackson has great range in center and should be a demon on the basepaths this year in the American League Central. Batting leadoff in a lineup that boasts sluggers like Johnny Damon, Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez, Jackson could top 100 runs if only a few things go right.
Ian Desmond - SS - Nationals
Washington manager Jim Riggleman made it clear in early March that Desmond will either start at shortstop in the big leagues or start at short in Triple-A. Either way, the Nats want him to get as much playing time as possible. And that's where the story currently stands. Cristian Guzman is doing his best to fend the youngster off for the Nationals' starting shortstop gig, but Desmond has hit 12-for-30 this spring with a home run, 11 RBI and three stolen bases. He's clearly the better option, and Riggleman certainly knows that, but upper-management has been cautious about pushing the 24-year-old too quickly through the system. Whatever happens as March turns to April, we're sure to see Desmond in a big league uniform this season. He'll probably be a starter in the District of Columbia by early July.
Other notable rookies: Logan Morrison (1B - Marlins), Buster Posey (C - Giants), Jon Niese (SP - Mets), Daniel Hudson (SP - White Sox), Justin Smoak (1B - Rangers), Mike Stanton (OF - Marlins), Jason Castro (C - Astros).
